Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Standing Strong in a Recession

The impending (or already present, depending on whom you ask) recession may well jeopardize the projections for continued growth in online advertising. When budgets tighten, advertising is less likely to get whacked, but ask managers in June if their second half budgets are higher.

The cuts could come in old media depending on the philosophy of the organization. They may see social nets and video as too risky, and opt for the trusted TV buy. Conservative companies who have faith in online could move away from PPC campaigns to lead generation or pay per action campaigns that only pay when the transaction is more likely to lead to a sale.

Of the top dogs online, eBay and Craigslist may see more volume as consumers look for bargains instead of paying retail, or the sad fact that folks who are having trouble making ends meet may offer goods for sale. Ditto for leisure sites such as Priceline and Hotels.com.

Google and Yahoo may suffer more than others, and startups like Joost may have trouble gaining traction with advertisers. We could be in for a long year as the recession could dampen enthusiasm for and investment in Web 2.0.

Posted By John Gartner at 08:14 AM
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Financial crisis in the United States of America is now in full swing. America’s economic troubles weren’t started by payday loans, to be sure. The official start time of the current recession was December 2007, according to the NBER. The NBER, or the National Bureau of Economic Research, has identified December 2007 as the peak time from where the US has declined ever since. The NBER defines recession as a period of time featuring “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.” The NBER is considered one of the best authorities on economic research, trusted by the government, the private sector, and academia, so this is about as official as you get. The biggest criteria are employment, income, industrial output, and sales figures. The peak time for income and employment were in December of 2007, industrial output peaked in January 2008, and then sales peaked in June. Congress, especially Democrats, weren’t exactly surprised, and called for a stimulus package. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) said that “The announcement simply makes official what we have long known: with rising costs, rising unemployment, record foreclosures and depleted savings, we must do more to help families make ends meet.” Not rolling over and granting the banks’ wish to ban payday loans would be a good idea, too. Bear in mind that economies work in cycles, booms and busts. The expansion that just ended lasted from November 2001 to December 2007, for 73 months. The record is 120 months, but most expansions last an average of 57 months since the end of World War II.

Comments by Payday Loans : Thursday, December 04, 2008 at 06:05 AM

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