Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Online Sales Won't Slow Down
According to Jupiter Research, online shopping will double by 2011, but then slow to single digit growth. But the logic behind that analysis is flawed.“Pretty much, most of the people who are ever going to be buying online are online,” said Patti Freeman Evans, senior retail analyst with Jupiter Research (as quoted by MSNBC.
Um, what about the current generation of high schoolers and tweens who live online and are buying music downloads and ringtones online? This group became comfortable with technology and living online so early that it's ingrained, so they will be buying much more online than the generation of baby-boomers who don't know DSL from DVD.
Also, the analysts quoted say that technology is too limited to see and experience goods online before the purchase. That may be true today, but 3D rendering and videos will be used more readily to give "hands on" feel to products before you buy. Also comparison shopping engines and customer reviews will eliminate some of the guesswork, and these are still in their infancy today.
So online shopping may not grow by 20 percent forever, but I'm skeptical that marketers won't find a way to keep growth above 10 percent indefinitely.
Posted By John Gartner at 01:35 PM
Permanent Link: Online Sales Won't Slow Down
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