Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Google: Now Us Versus Them
First, off, there's the new Wiki search project, as outlined by BusinessWeek. Wikiasaria (an awful name -- they should crowd source the title) may take longer than a year to deliver better results than Google, many people unhappy with the state of search might start using it contribute to a Google alternative.
Then there's click fraud. The bogus clicks that Google is happy to pretend it doesn't see while lining its corporate wallet with advertiser cash has prompted several lawsuits, and advertisers could finally tire of overpaying for clicks and revolt. Or, Microsoft could revamp the AdCenter model to track only clicks that go one level deep into a website, or move to a cost per action model. Taking the high road in click fraud might be Microsoft's (or Yahoo's) best shot at becoming a better buy than Google.
Google also has much work to do with YouTube. Indexing the countless videos will be a technical challenge and drain on resources, and delivering the streams will also be a burden, especially if energy prices spike. Google also hasn't paid the pipers who want recompense for all of those copyright infringements that YouTube has allowed over the past few years.
Once YouTube is cleansed of the adult and copyrighted content, traffic could drop substantially. The network TV guys are also considering their own video service, which take away one of the two legs that YouTube has stood upon. Google's video search is still far from great, and Blinkx and the myriad of specialty video sites could make the YouTube purchase more of a burden than a bargain.
Google's growth is likely to slow while the company remains wildly profitable, but it is good to recognize that the company has risks that could dampen its outlook.
Posted By John Gartner at 01:43 PM
Permanent Link: Google: Now Us Versus Them
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