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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Microsoft to Best Apple for Now

Microsoft's announcement that it was entering the video rental business using its Xbox Live platform is bad news for Apple and Amazon, but over time none of these companies will win the video download war.

The Xbox advantages are that it's already connected to the TV, has some HD titles, and the 10 million video-ready consoles give Microsoft a user base that is willing to pay for content. It will take Apple a long time to sell that many movie download boxes. Although pricing hasn't been announced, movies are a commodity, and the entire cost of the system will (as always) be less expensive than Apple's offering.

Amazon's service has had its share of problems , and the company will never be an impact player.

But in the long run, watch out for Comcast to dominate this market by acquiring a movie download service or developing its own. What's holding back movie download services like MovieLink and CinemaNow is the lack of a simple way to move the content to the big screen. Cable companies have been held back by inferior selection of titles in their video on demand offerings, an inferior search capability, and inability to play Internet content.

Comcast should develop an integrated content service that enables people to pick their movies, TV shows and web content online and deliver either online (for people who are supposedly working) or through the cable service to their TVs. The combined service would offer some movies as video on demand while the "long tail" of video content would be sent to a locally stored or networked DVR.

Comcast is already in the business of high speed access as well as entertainment services. The crown jewel would be offering wireless router that could share content from a DVR to any TV or PC in the house. Managing the account online makes it that much easier.

The iPod and Xbox services will have their niche audiences (like Apple's computers), but look for Comcast to become the Microsoft of digital movie distribution.

Posted By John Gartner at 10:10 AM
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