Friday, October 13, 2006

Facebook Faces Dark Future

You don't hear sports fans shouting "We're number three" because there is a huge chasm between finishing at the top and getting the bronze medal. This should be a lesson to Facebook, an also-ran social networking site that may have just priced itself out of being acquired by Yahoo for nearly $1 billion. Facebook will likely go down in the annals of history with Pets.com as a coulda woulda shoulda website that never made it, despite lots of hype. Facebook isn't nearly MySpace or YouTube, and hoping for a 10-figure purchase price is insane. Facebook's founders will lament the day that they could have been rich beyond their wildest dreams, but their hubris lost that chance. Facebook will probably stay independent for a few more months, lose market share, and then scramble for anyone to buy them. A perfect fit would be Lycos, the once fourth biggest portal that never could quite be AOL or Yahoo. Aspects of social networking will be incorporated into popular websites, so there soon won't be a need for acquiring a stand alone entity. You'll see MTV, ESPN and the like figure out how to connect their fans and derive extra revenue from the content, but finding like-minded people won't require joining some youth-oriented site. Yahoo should leverage its strength in IM and entertainment and come up with its own social services for a fraction of the Facebook price.

Posted By John Gartner at 11:13 AM
Permanent Link: Facebook Faces Dark Future | Comments (3)

(3) Comments on Facebook Faces Dark Future

You really shouldn't be commenting on social networking, you clearly have no concept of its value to users, and facebook's value to post-secondary users in particular.

Facebook has cool cache on campus that no other web property can touch. If others could have stolen the user base; they would have done so more than a year ago. Facebook's value will only go up over time b/c it is retaining its users even after they leave school.

Furthermore, facebook has a ton of room to grow outside of its current business model, and will likely branch out into other new and useful areas that still haven't even been identified.

By the way, thank God facebook isn't myspace, and think about it for a moment, what prevents facebook from taking on youtube functions? What does that do to your valuation?

Comments by Ken : Friday, October 13, 2006 at 03:51 PM

this post seems very ironic now (2009). Mark Zuckerberg made a really wise choice not selling Facebook.I guess sometimes it pays to believe in your dreams and not give a rat's ass what everyone else thinks.

Comments by Jesmond : Tuesday, January 20, 2009 at 05:56 AM

wow this predictions is hilarious
this dude is so fired from whatever job he has
hahahahahhaha
lycos wtf!

Comments by johny bee good : Wednesday, May 06, 2009 at 07:31 PM

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