Wednesday, May 04, 2005
Search Engine Usage, Inertia and Firefox
The conventional wisdom is that there is little or no search-engine loyalty; Yahoo!, MSN, AOL, Jeeves, InfoSpace/DogPile, Lycos, etc. are "just a click away" from Google. I hear this argument again and again. And, as a hypothetical matter, it's true. However, I want to challenge the conventional wisdom with two separate pieces of data that seem to reflect, if not search engine loyalty, then, inertia.
First, comScore recently reported that search engine market share has remained largely unchanged in the past year. Their U.S. data are as follows:
- Google 36.4%
- Yahoo! 30.6% (and hasn't gained ground)
- MSN 16.5%
- AOL fell to 8.9%
- Jeeves increased to 5.5%, explained as a by-product of its acquisition
Next, take findings from Jason's survey of the uniqueness of search results. What Jason found was that among the engines he surveyed and tested, "Google had the least amount of unique results when compared to the other search engines." (There are many comments that dispute or seek to explain this in response to the post.)
In The Kelsey Group's research last October with BizRate.com (now Shopzilla) with 3,887 online consumers, findings reflected that 35 percent of respondents indicated loyalty to one search engine (consistent with Google's U.S. share percentage). What's interesting from my point of view are the following:
- According to Jason's research, Google is lowest in terms of unique search results yet retains its leadership position
- Other studies and analysts have similarly suggested that the difference in quality among search results has all but disappeared
- Google's market leadership position has remained basically unchanged during a time of furious competition and search product innovation
What about data that reflect little or no loyalty to search engines? People may indeed use multiple engines, but that apparent lack of "loyalty" is probably a reflection of primary and secondary engine choices rather than true fluidity.
It takes something obviously better to motivate a change in consumer behavior. And unless or until that happens, we're likely to see the market share numbers remain largely unchanged.
So what about the browser market and Firefox? Does its rapid adoption hold any lessons for the search marketplace and for Google in particular?
The upstart open-source browser recently passed the 50 million downloads threshold; and it's closing in on 10% market share.
Thus far, the people who have adopted Firefox are not entirely what you might call "mainstreamers." Indeed, the Firefox phenomenon is largely explained as a reaction against IE's security flaws. That's true, but I think only partly correct. I believe the other side of the story is: backlash against Microsoft's dominant market position.
More and more Google is perceived to be the "Microsoft of search." In fact, I think that MSN is getting some mileage (and rare sympathy) out of being the underdog in this game.
What all that means from my point of view is that Google, which is beloved by users generally, needs to take care not to take for granted the influencers among its user base. (There is some evidence that the company is not doing a good job with SEM customer service.)
This seems to fly in the face of what I said above about inertia. The analogy to Firefox helps reconcile these seeming contradictions. Firefox was and is better than IE. But resentment toward Microsoft "primed the pump" for defection when the right product came along.
Inertia will remain a powerful force in search. But new products will come along; and if they're better (in obvious ways), people will adopt them. The potential danger for Google is taking its users for granted and not being mindful of the way the perceived arrogance of being the "900 pound gorilla" tends to alienate people.
Posted By Jason Dowdell at 11:49 AM
Permanent Link: Search Engine Usage, Inertia and Firefox
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